There are six clubs fighting for two remaining Europa League spots in a four-point radius, so it’ll go down to the wire.
Inter’s defeat in the Derby della Madonnina means even the Nerazzurri are not secure of their place in Europe next season.
Fiorentina have already qualified as runners-up in the Coppa Italia, because winners Napoli are in the Champions League.
Because the Viola are also in the top four, Serie A are given an extra spot in the Europa League that otherwise would’ve gone to the Coppa winners. Therefore fifth and sixth will go into Europe.
In Serie A goal difference is irrelevant, as when teams finish level on points the table is decided by their head-to-head record.
This is why we’re giving a round-up of what could happen in the final two rounds.
Inter qualify if...
Inter have 57 points, so two victories would maintain their position and guarantee Europa League qualification. However, they still have to face Lazio – who are in the running for the continent – and also an increasingly desperate Chievo.
The Nerazzurri have a superior head-to-head record with Torino, Verona and Parma, equal with Milan and their tally with Lazio depends on Saturday’s result.
Torino qualify if...
Torino have 55 points and, like Inter, have their destiny in their own hands. Wins against Parma and Fiorentina would secure their spot, but the showdown with the Ducali could be decisive.
The Granata have a superior head-to-head record with Verona and Lazio, level with Milan, inferior to Inter and are still awaiting Parma’s result.
Parma qualify if...
Parma have 54 points and their remaining two games are away to Torino and at home to Livorno. The Ducali can boast a superior head-to-head record with Milan and Verona, but inferior to Lazio and Inter. Their result with Torino could be crucial.
Milan qualify if...
Milan have 54 points, but simply getting two wins will not be enough, so they must hope other results go their way. The Rossoneri will face Atalanta and an improved Sassuolo, who let’s not forget already beat them 4-3 in January to end Massimiliano Allegri’s reign.
Clarence Seedorf’s men are in a particularly dangerous position, as they have no head-to-head records in their favour. They are level with Inter, Torino, Lazio and Verona, while Parma are superior. If they do finish with the same points as those four clubs, then goal difference will come into play.
Lazio qualify if...
Lazio have 53 points and the recent 3-3 home draws with Torino and Verona put a heavy dent in their chances of qualification. It’s a very tough run-in too, as they go into a clash with Inter at San Siro and host a Bologna side battling against relegation.
The Biancocelesti only have a superior head-to-head record with Parma, on a par with Milan and inferior to Torino and Verona. Their tally with Inter will be decided on Saturday.
Verona qualify if...
Verona have 53 points and it will be very difficult for them to snatch a Europa League place. Although level with Lazio right now, they play Udinese at home and Napoli at the San Paolo. Their only superior head-to-head record is with Lazio, while they are level with Milan and on the losing side if they have the same points as Inter, Parma or Torino.
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